Last updated on Apr 1, 2026 2 min read

Dynamic Panel BMA: Which Factors Truly Drive Economic Growth?

Status: Script reviewed (ACCEPT) Language: R Last run: 2026-04-01

Overview

Bayesian Model Averaging for dynamic panel data with weakly exogenous regressors using the bdsm R package. Analyzes which of 9 candidate growth determinants truly drive economic growth across 73 countries over 4 decades (1970–2000), accounting for reverse causality through lagged dependent variables and fixed effects. Improvement over v1: data preparation demeaning by both year AND entity (country).

Pipeline Progress

Script (analysis.R) – executed and reviewed (ACCEPT)
Results report (results_report.md) – pending
Blog post (index.md) – pending
Infographic (infographic_instructions.md) – pending

Generated Figures

#	File	Description
1	`r_bdsm_model_pmp.png`	Prior vs posterior model probabilities (bdsm built-in)
2	`r_bdsm_model_sizes.png`	Model size distribution (bdsm built-in)
3	`r_bdsm_coef_hist_pop.png`	Population coefficient histogram (bdsm built-in)
4	`r_bdsm_sizes_dilution.png`	Model sizes under dilution prior (bdsm built-in)
5	`r_dynamic_bma2_pip.png`	PIP bar chart – custom ggplot2 dark theme
6	`r_dynamic_bma2_coef.png`	Coefficient estimates with 95% CIs – custom ggplot2 dark theme
7	`r_dynamic_bma2_sensitivity.png`	Prior sensitivity dumbbell chart – custom ggplot2 dark theme

Generated Tables (CSV)

#	File	Description
1	`economic_growth.csv`	Raw source dataset from bdsm package
2	`original_economic_growth.csv`	Source dataset with lagged GDP column
3	`data_prepared.csv`	Final processed dataset (standardized + demeaned by year + entity)
4	`fe_regression.csv`	Kitchen-sink fixed effects regression coefficients
5	`bma_binomial.csv`	BMA results with binomial prior (EMS = 4.5)
6	`bma_binomial_beta.csv`	BMA results with binomial-beta prior
7	`best_models_inclusion.csv`	Top 8 models inclusion matrix
8	`best_models_estimates.csv`	Top 8 models coefficient estimates
9	`prior_sensitivity.csv`	PIPs across all prior specifications
10	`jointness_hcghm.csv`	HCGHM jointness matrix

Datasets

File	Rows	Cols	Description
`economic_growth.csv`	365	12	Raw panel data (73 countries, 5 periods, 9 regressors)
`original_economic_growth.csv`	292	13	Panel data with lagged GDP (excludes initial period)
`data_prepared.csv`	365	12	Standardized + demeaned by year + demeaned by entity

Pipeline Documents

File	Description
`plan.md`	Approved scope and design decisions
`script-review.md`	Code review report (verdict: ACCEPT)
`README.md`	This file – artifact inventory and status

Packages

bdsm – Bayesian Dynamic Systems Modeling
tidyverse – data manipulation and visualization
parallel – parallel computing for model space estimation
scales – number formatting for ggplot axes